In southeastern Nigeria, separatist violence is likely to periodically disrupt business operations this year.
This assessment was issued to clients of Dragonfly's Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS) on 6 January 2023.
- Businesses in southeastern economic hubs are likely to experience interruptions from sporadic bouts of separatist violence during an election period in February and March
- Separatists will probably form a more coordinated anti-government campaign following those elections, particularly enforcing ‘sit-at-home’ protest orders
- Imo and Anambra states are likely to remain hotspots for separatist violence
The separatist Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) won a federal high court judgement in October 2022, which ordered the release of their leader from prison. But the authorities do not seem inclined to do so, meaning separatist factions are likely to employ a slew of tactics to pressure the government, particularly from April in the post-election period. This would probably include a return to implementing weekly ‘sit-at-home’ protests and armed attacks primarily targeting security forces.
Anti-government campaign
IPOB appears to have scaled back operations after the recent court order to release its leader Nmandi Kanu from jail. Following this, the IPOB leadership in December suspended weekly ‘sit-at-home’ protests. But some factions have rejected the change in tactics; as recently as 2 January small groups of gunmen intimidated local residents from leaving their homes. And despite IPOB’s announcement that it would not interfere with the presidential and gubernatorial polls scheduled for February and March respectively, the authorities continue to accuse IPOB of attacking electoral infrastructure. We have not been able to verify these claims.
Separatists will probably form a more coordinated anti-government campaign following those elections. For now, the leadership seems broadly averse to jeopardising international support garnered from the court win. In July the United Nations backed IPOB’s demands for the release of Kanu. And over recent months IPOB has not expressed an intent to attack any foreign businesses. The group has previously been linked to attacks on the oil industry, albeit this was several years ago. But given that the authorities have so far not shown any signs of intent to release Kanu, it is likely that IPOB will return to implementing the ‘sit-at-home’ protest orders later this year.
Outlook for violence
Businesses in southeastern economic hubs are likely to experience interruptions from sporadic bouts of violence by separatist factions during the electoral period. In our assessment, any ‘sit-at-home’ protests in Ebonyi, Imo and Anambra would most probably be accompanied by violence; over recent weeks gunmen opened fire on road junctions and at market areas, causing fatalities in their apparent effort to force the local population to obey. Gunmen also reportedly kidnapped two expatriates working on Owerri-Okigwe road in what was probably an effort to halt government projects.
We are very doubtful that separatists are intent on mounting large-scale attacks on major cities, such as Port Harcourt. They have typically targeted state-linked sites and security forces in their strongholds. And particularly now with internal divisions, factions seem to be small and have limited resources. Recent military advances rooting out separatists from southeastern towns and forests in recent months have indicated the superiority of government forces. The authorities seem to have debilitated IPOB camps, arresting high-ranking fighters and retrieving arms, as well as a few RPGs, according to the local press.
Post-election period
We forecast that once a new government is installed in August, the separatists would then probably pursue a fresh round of negotiations with the authorities to release Kanu, among other demands. Although it is still too early to predict the policy position of any new government, our forecast (B-NGA-02-11-22) on the likely electoral winners suggests that there is a reasonable chance that the new government will maintain a hostile approach to the separatists.
We anticipate that the likely breakdown in negotiations with the government would probably embolden IPOB to escalate their attacks. In complex attacks, separatists typically use firearms and petrol bombs to target state-linked sites such as local police stations, as well as security force patrols, based on the pattern of attacks recorded by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. Although not intended, businesses operating in close proximity to these targets in southeastern Nigeria would potentially be at risk of being caught up in the crossfire between security forces and separatists.
Image: A tank from the Nigerian Army passes in a pro-Biafra separatists zone during a military patrol in Aba, Nigeria, on 15 February 2019. Photo by Cristina Aldehuela/AFP via Getty Images.
